Wednesday, August 31, 2005

Whitey's wise words still apply to playoffs

Back in the 1980s, when the Cardinals won the pennant about every other year, their manager, Whitey Herzog, said the playoffs should more closely resemble the regular season.

His point was that you have to use your entire 25-man roster to get to the playoffs but need only your top 20 players in postseason. There is no reason to rest a player because there are a lot of off days in October. You don't have to use your fifth starter for the same reason.
Sometimes you can get by using only your first three starters.
The same is true in the bullpen. It isn't often necessary to use more than three relievers.
I agree with Herzog, in theory. There should be fewer off days to require managers to use the whole team as they do in the regular season.
But I am glad the postseason includes more off days because the Astros will need them if they make it. With Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Roy Oswalt, the Astros have the best 1-2-3 punch in the league. They also have one of the best bullpens to use in the seventh inning on with Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler and Brad Lidge.
Hitters need time, too Several of the hitters could use the time off. Craig Biggio would benefit. At his age, every break helps. Lance Berkman could rest his aching knee, and Brad Ausmus could catch all the games.
This Astros team doesn't have as much depth as other playoff contenders. But the nucleus of the pitching staff might be better. The nucleus of the lineup is not as strong as it has been in recent years. But as it showed in June and July, it's capable of good run production from time to time. In a way, the Astros are like the 1998 Padres.
The Padres had the worst record among the division leaders that year, mostly because they didn't have depth. The Astros lost to them in the first round that year. In the League Championship Series, the Padres mustered enough offense to beat the Braves, too.
They really weren't the best team in the National League that year, and they eventually lost to the Yankees in the World Series. If not for the off days in the postseason, they might not have made it that far.
In 1998, the Braves had the best regular-season record, and the Astros were second. The Astros were the best team in the league in August and September.
With 29 more games to play, the 2005 Astros are in position to make the playoffs again. They will have to hit better to make it, and they can hit better.
What troubles me is the cycle. Like most teams, the Astros hit for a while and then go cold. I don't know if they can sustain the hitting long enough to make the playoffs and keep hitting well enough to win in October. It is unlikely but still possible.
I believe their pitching is strong enough to beat the best offensive teams, but they can't do it if they don't hit.
Cards provide good test This weekend, when the Cardinals come calling, the Astros will have a chance to measure themselves against the best. That series won't win or lose the wild card, but it will give the team a feel for what it has to do to reach its goal.
While it is obvious they can't match up with the Cardinals' 25-man roster, the Astros might be almost as good going 20 against 20.
The Astros captivated the city last September. They went into the playoffs with a better hitting team than this year's, but they didn't have Andy Pettitte. Can having him make up for the loss of Carlos Beltran and Jeff Kent? For a whole season, probably not, but for a short season, maybe.
This September should be exciting, whether the Astros win the wild card or not. But there is only one way that it will be satisfying.

Source: http://www.chron.com/

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