NL champs face certain uncertainties
03/07/2006
All you have to do is get there and anything can happen. Just make the playoffs, by hook, by crook or by Wild Card berth on the last day of the season.
Once you get to October, the rules seem to change, and the Astros have demonstrated for two years running that they have a club built to take advantage of those rules. It's getting to October that's the issue.
So can Houston get there for the third straight season and the seventh time in 10 years?
Absolutely, unequivocally, maybe.
They could. If everything breaks right. If they stay healthy... and if Andy Pettitte comes close to repeating his career year... and if they maximize an offense that contains a number of intriguing pieces... and, of course, if Roger Clemens decides he wants to pitch one more year.
The Astros got a taste last year, reaching the franchise's first World Series before being swept by the White Sox. The goal this year is nothing less than winning it all.
"There's something to be said for getting there and not winning," said manager Phil Garner. "It does have a sense that you're not finished, that there's work undone, that there's still something you're fighting for."
Winning it all, meanwhile, starts with winning at least 88-90 games and getting to the postseason.
Garner will be faced with one of the most difficult jobs of any manager of a contending team. Depending on a few variables, his lineup could feature a number of radically different looks. He'll have to make the pieces work together and turn a useful collection of parts into a productive whole of an offense.
Franchise icon Jeff Bagwell could be the starting first baseman; or he could leave the game entirely. Last year's Rookie of the Year runner-up Willy Taveras might be playing center field regularly in Houston; and he might be doing it in Round Rock of the Pacific Coast League.
The team's best hitter, Lance Berkman? Maybe he'll be in the outfield, maybe at first base. Postseason hero Chris Burke? Some days he'll play second base, but he could also start in the outfield or be a super-utility guy. Jason Lane and Preston Wilson have to play somewhere.
Only four spots are obvious -- surprise MVP candidate Morgan Ensberg returns at third base, potential Hall of Famer Craig Biggio will play second for one more year and defensive specialists Adam Everett (shortstop) and Brad Ausmus (catcher) will be anchors up the middle.
It's a job fit for Earl Weaver, and it will be a credit to Garner if he can make it all fit seamlessly. Creativity, fortunately, is one of Garner's strong suits. He should be able to envision some intriguing ways to make everything work.
A lineup that includes Bagwell, Biggio, Ensberg, Berkman, Lane and Preston Wilson could score some runs and improve on the Astros' No. 11 scoring offense from last season. Then again, if Ensberg backslides a little, Bagwell hangs it up, and Biggio shows his age, it could well be a long year. More of those ifs.
Garner actually did a good bit of juggling last year, finding ways to get Burke in the lineup. Garner was willing to go with what worked, rather than just dancing with the one that brung him.
To the extent that "intangibles" can help you win ballgames, you have to think some of them will be on the Astros' side in 2006. The confidence that they can make it to the biggest stage should mix with the hunger to prove they belong once they get there.
"When you get that close and didn't get it all done, there's still that determination that you say we had a wonderful, fantastic run," said Garner. "A lot of fun. But business is undone."
But all the good feelings in baseball won't be enough if the Astros don't score enough runs to make winners of their pitchers. And there's no guarantee they will.
Still, amidst all the questions, one enormous constant looms. Right-hander Roy Oswalt may be the league's most reliably outstanding starter. He gives the Astros at least a puncher's chance in any postseason series, and makes them a favorite to win any regular-season series where he gets a start.
That's a huge asset. But behind him, there's uncertainty in what has been Houston's bedrock in recent years. Clemens may or may not return to the rotation, and never mind his win total from last year -- few hurlers were more valuable and none was more effective.
Pettitte, meanwhile, is coming off his best season since 1997, and quite probably the finest of his career. To ask him to be that good again is to hope, not to expect. He'll be good; but it's unfair to expect him to be that great again.
That leaves Brandon Backe and a cast of promising but far-from-certain youngsters. The difference between three and four reliable starters is enormous, not just in what they offer while they're in the game but what they do for your bullpen.
Every game where an Astros starter goes six or more is a game where the deep Houston bullpen can be used the way it's intended, rather than stretched and strained. If Garner can keep from wearing out his bullpen -- from needing to wear it out -- the Astros will win a lot of 3-2 games by winning the bullpen battle.
And that's a formula that works in April, July ... and October.
Source: http://houston.astros.mlb.com/
All you have to do is get there and anything can happen. Just make the playoffs, by hook, by crook or by Wild Card berth on the last day of the season.
Once you get to October, the rules seem to change, and the Astros have demonstrated for two years running that they have a club built to take advantage of those rules. It's getting to October that's the issue.
So can Houston get there for the third straight season and the seventh time in 10 years?
Absolutely, unequivocally, maybe.
They could. If everything breaks right. If they stay healthy... and if Andy Pettitte comes close to repeating his career year... and if they maximize an offense that contains a number of intriguing pieces... and, of course, if Roger Clemens decides he wants to pitch one more year.
The Astros got a taste last year, reaching the franchise's first World Series before being swept by the White Sox. The goal this year is nothing less than winning it all.
"There's something to be said for getting there and not winning," said manager Phil Garner. "It does have a sense that you're not finished, that there's work undone, that there's still something you're fighting for."
Winning it all, meanwhile, starts with winning at least 88-90 games and getting to the postseason.
Garner will be faced with one of the most difficult jobs of any manager of a contending team. Depending on a few variables, his lineup could feature a number of radically different looks. He'll have to make the pieces work together and turn a useful collection of parts into a productive whole of an offense.
Franchise icon Jeff Bagwell could be the starting first baseman; or he could leave the game entirely. Last year's Rookie of the Year runner-up Willy Taveras might be playing center field regularly in Houston; and he might be doing it in Round Rock of the Pacific Coast League.
The team's best hitter, Lance Berkman? Maybe he'll be in the outfield, maybe at first base. Postseason hero Chris Burke? Some days he'll play second base, but he could also start in the outfield or be a super-utility guy. Jason Lane and Preston Wilson have to play somewhere.
Only four spots are obvious -- surprise MVP candidate Morgan Ensberg returns at third base, potential Hall of Famer Craig Biggio will play second for one more year and defensive specialists Adam Everett (shortstop) and Brad Ausmus (catcher) will be anchors up the middle.
It's a job fit for Earl Weaver, and it will be a credit to Garner if he can make it all fit seamlessly. Creativity, fortunately, is one of Garner's strong suits. He should be able to envision some intriguing ways to make everything work.
A lineup that includes Bagwell, Biggio, Ensberg, Berkman, Lane and Preston Wilson could score some runs and improve on the Astros' No. 11 scoring offense from last season. Then again, if Ensberg backslides a little, Bagwell hangs it up, and Biggio shows his age, it could well be a long year. More of those ifs.
Garner actually did a good bit of juggling last year, finding ways to get Burke in the lineup. Garner was willing to go with what worked, rather than just dancing with the one that brung him.
To the extent that "intangibles" can help you win ballgames, you have to think some of them will be on the Astros' side in 2006. The confidence that they can make it to the biggest stage should mix with the hunger to prove they belong once they get there.
"When you get that close and didn't get it all done, there's still that determination that you say we had a wonderful, fantastic run," said Garner. "A lot of fun. But business is undone."
But all the good feelings in baseball won't be enough if the Astros don't score enough runs to make winners of their pitchers. And there's no guarantee they will.
Still, amidst all the questions, one enormous constant looms. Right-hander Roy Oswalt may be the league's most reliably outstanding starter. He gives the Astros at least a puncher's chance in any postseason series, and makes them a favorite to win any regular-season series where he gets a start.
That's a huge asset. But behind him, there's uncertainty in what has been Houston's bedrock in recent years. Clemens may or may not return to the rotation, and never mind his win total from last year -- few hurlers were more valuable and none was more effective.
Pettitte, meanwhile, is coming off his best season since 1997, and quite probably the finest of his career. To ask him to be that good again is to hope, not to expect. He'll be good; but it's unfair to expect him to be that great again.
That leaves Brandon Backe and a cast of promising but far-from-certain youngsters. The difference between three and four reliable starters is enormous, not just in what they offer while they're in the game but what they do for your bullpen.
Every game where an Astros starter goes six or more is a game where the deep Houston bullpen can be used the way it's intended, rather than stretched and strained. If Garner can keep from wearing out his bullpen -- from needing to wear it out -- the Astros will win a lot of 3-2 games by winning the bullpen battle.
And that's a formula that works in April, July ... and October.
Source: http://houston.astros.mlb.com/
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